To no one’s surprise, the Chicago Cubs are making Cody Bellinger, and his bloated contract available on the trade market. The Athletic’s MLB Insider Ken Rosenthal broke down the situation while appearing on the Foul Territory podcast on Thursday.
Bellinger is an interesting fit for the Diamondbacks, as they have a big hole at first base should Christian Walker sign with another team, and he can play all three outfield positions. It would also serve as a reunion, as he played at Hamilton High School in Chandler before getting selected by the Dodgers in the 4th round of the 2013 MLB Draft.
After signing a three-year deal with the Cubs for $80 million, his first year in Chicago was very disappointing. In 130 games, Bellinger hit .266 with 18 home runs and a .751 OPS (108 OPS+). While not a poor season by normal standards, it felt considerably short for a player making $27.5 million that season. Bellinger is still owed at least $32.5 million if he opts out after 2025, which includes a $5 million buyout, and $52.5 million if he doesn’t.
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Bellinger has so-so career numbers at Chase Field, with a triple slash of .235/.310/.430 and seven home runs in 46 games. He went 4-for-12 with a triple and a home run when the Cubs took two of three from the D-backs back in April, but did not play when Arizona won the series in Chicago in July due to injury.
The D-backs also find themselves in a sticky situation with a free agent signing that didn’t pan out in 2024. Waiting until after Opening Day to sign, Jordan Montgomery struggled in his first season in Arizona. He pitched to a 6.23 ERA in 25 games (21 starts) and was eventually bumped out of the rotation in favor of an emerging Ryne Nelson. Since he made 21 starts, Montgomery is owed $22.5 million for the 2025 season after exercising his player option.
Trade Values
It’s worth noting that both Montgomery and Bellinger have negative trade value, which is the reason why they’re on the market. Montgomery is projected for 1.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to ZiPS and 0.9 by Steamer on FanGraphs. Average the two out and you get 1.25 WAR. Using $8 million as the dollar value per WAR figure, Montgomery has an estimated trade surplus value of -$12.5 million.
Bellinger is projected to be worth 2.1 WAR by Steamer and thus has a trade surplus value of -$10.7 million for just 2025. It becomes more difficult to project beyond that, but assuming a 0.5 WAR decline, I’m projecting him at 1.6 WAR for 2026. Doing all the math, that adds up to -$12.2 million for 2026 and -$22.9 million for the two years.
Comparing the two trade values, it’s pretty clear there is a huge imbalance ($10.4 million) that will require the Cubs to either kick in money, throw in prospects, or both to facilitate a trade.
How a possible deal could be structured
With the situation both teams find themselves in, there’s always the chance they connect for a swap of bad contracts and hope a change of scenery benefits each player. Of course, such a deal is easier said than done. There’s the issue of salary, in which a one-for-one trade greatly benefits the Cubs more over the next two years. The D-backs would take on significantly more salary in this deal, somewhere between $10-30 million depending on what happens in 2025. For this deal to happen, Chicago would have to send cash in the deal. That means either paying the $5 million buyout if Bellinger opts out or $5 million of his 2026 salary if he doesn’t.
Even factoring in the $5 million thrown in by the Cubs, the Diamondbacks will need to get more value from the trade to account for taking on Bellinger’s 2026 salary. Thus, Arizona should also ask for a player in return in the deal. To close the $5 million trade imbalance, Chicago would have to include a 40 future value prospect. A prospect like Will Sanders or Brandon Birdsell would make sense in the return.
Why the D-backs could say no
On paper, such a deal makes sense at face value. The question that remains on Arizona’s side is whether they be better off trading for Bellinger rather than just a platoon at first base for considerably less than a $25 million salary addition over the next two years. That is the fundamental question that if the answer is not “Yes” then such a deal is dead on arrival. They have alternative options to consider, whether it’s turning to free agency, the trade market, internal options, or just re-signing Walker.
Adding to the further complication is how poorly he performed in key batted ball metrics. Bellinger ranked below the 50th percentile in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, launch angle sweet spot rate, and chase rate. The D-backs’ internal analytics grade out somewhat similarly to the xStats on Baseball Savant, so they might not be enthusiastic and pass on a deal just on his underlying metrics alone.
The D-backs don’t have much budget to add salary in 2025, with the expected payroll expected to be around the $173 million figure they spent in 2024. According to Roster Resource, the team already has $149 million when accounting for contracts and projected salaries for arbitration-eligible and pre-arbitration players on the 40-man roster. A Bellinger deal would push that figure to $154 million, shrinking their budget even further. Unless they’re 100% convinced that they’ll get a significant upgrade at first base, it makes no sense.
Conclusion
There are plenty of avenues the team could potentially turn to when it comes to replacing Walker. Bellinger’s underlying metrics are a big concern and a bad contract swap might not be in the D-backs’ best interest. Their only internal option is Pavin Smith, who doesn’t have a strong track record despite a mini-breakout at the end of 2024. They could turn to Josh Bell in free agency for cheap, but his defense was poor enough that he’s barely above replacement level at the position. The trade market will be costly, as they look for a short-term solution to fill the biggest hole in the lineup.
Given the choice of swapping Montgomery for Bellinger or just dumping Montgomery for as much savings as possible and going a different route at first base makes more sense.
Michael McDermott has been writing about the Arizona Diamondbacks, and their minor league system, for 9 seasons for AZ Snake Pit, Diamondbacks on SI, and Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X at x.com/michaelmcdmlb or at Bluesky.
